WSM

What WSM’s earnings track record actually shows

Williams-Sonoma has delivered a beat in all 8 of its last reported quarters—a 100% beat rate—while posting an average earnings surprise of 7.9%. The most recent four prints, listed most recent first, all exceeded the official consensus: on 2026-05-21 actual EPS was $1.93 versus the $1.81 estimate (6.6% surprise); on 2026-03-18 actual EPS was $3.04 versus $2.90 (4.8% surprise); on 2025-11-19 actual EPS was $1.96 versus $1.88 (4.3% surprise); and on 2025-08-27 actual EPS was $2.00 versus $1.81 (10.5% surprise).

That string of beats has not, however, translated into a reliable next-day pop. The day-after reactions for those four reports were 0.29%, –0.83%, –1.19%, and –2.14%, respectively. The cleaner pattern appears once you widen the lens to the five trading days after the release. Across the last eight quarters, WSM’s average 5-day post-earnings move is 3.55%, classified as “up” drift. The five-day follow-throughs for the last four quarters were 6.06% after May 2026, –1.18% after March 2026, 3.72% after November 2025, and 5.59% after August 2025.

Options-flow dynamics ahead of the next report

The next scheduled earnings date is 2026-08-26 before the open, with the official analyst consensus EPS estimate at $2.05. As that date approaches, options implied volatility usually expands to reflect the binary outcome, and the at-the-money straddle prices the market’s expected absolute move. Directional clues come from call/put skew and from any unusual options flow concentrated near the strikes around the current price of $236.135.

Because WSM’s historical five-day drift direction has been “up," traders compare the straddle-implied move against the magnitudes of the prior drifts—6.06%, 3.72%, and 5.59% among the latest three positive instances—to judge whether premium is priced aggressively. That said, options only show where money is being positioned, not what the stock will do. The 2025-08-27 release is a textbook reminder: WSM beat by 10.5% yet still opened the next session down 2.14%.

What a disciplined trader watches for the Aug. 26 print

With the stock at $236.135, RSI at 59.6, and the 50-day EMA at $219.41, the setup heading into the Aug. 26 report is best treated as context rather than a foregone conclusion. A disciplined approach starts with the $2.05 consensus and then looks at comparable demand, gross-margin trajectory, inventory levels, and any full-year guidance update. The 50-day EMA near $219.41 can serve as a reference zone for support if post-earnings selling pressure appears, while the current price sits roughly $16.72 above that level.

Traders also compare the next-day price action with the historical pattern of mixed immediate reactions and generally positive five-day drift, and they watch whether options flow shifts toward puts or calls as the release approaches. For investors who want the complete picture, the full institutional verdict includes analyst estimate revisions, valuation assumptions, and the broader specialty-retail macro backdrop beyond these historical earnings numbers.